Inside the 3G iPhone - revisiting my predictions
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Here is the photo of the iPhone 3G chipset as dissected by TechOnline -
Prediction #1: As this photo indicates, Infineon emerged the cellular chipset winner. The analysts are not sure if it is the PMB 8878 since they had no way of comparing the iPhone component with a known sample of the Infineon 3G baseband offering. They found that the baseband was a two-chip, single package solution. They further identified it as the 2G chip and a 3G accelerator.
For the moment, I have no reason to suspect that this is anything butthe PMB 8878. I don't believe that Infineon would have a chip customized for Apple. On the other hand, the company perhaps quickly cobbled together a 3G solution in the form of a two-chip PMB8878 to cater to the market needs (including those of Apple.) Given the long cellular product cycle and the tight iPhone schedules, this would have been the path of least risk as compared to spinning single chip solutions. For the record, Infineon recently announced smaller and more sophisticated 3G solutions with its own software stack. These latest chips (that are not in the iPhone) are likely the more thought out, and more optimal single chip UMTS solution.
The two-chip solution inside the iPhone 3G further brings back the question I have been asking for a while now. Does the 3G IP in Infineon partially or wholly belong to InterDigital? It could well be that the iPhone has many if not all elements of the SlimChip IP from InterDigital. Apple's license with InterDigital last year will then have deeper implications than the normal 3G license that the King of Prussia-based company seeks from handset vendors.
While the exact details will emerge in the coming days, my prediction #1, "Infineon will be at the heart of the iPhone. " has turned out to be true.
Prediction #2: "Samsung will perhaps continue to own this part. " Not much surprise here as the iFixit teardown revealed last Thursday. Prediction #2 was true too.
Prediction #3: Before we discuss WLAN and Bluetooth, here is a second picture from TechOnline -
So, as it turns out, Apple yet again went with Marvell for WLAN. Prediction #3, "For platform stability issues, I will bet on Marvell grabbing this socket again." was right.
Prediction #4: "If WLAN belongs to Marvell, CSR, which is in the current iPhone, will likely own the Bluetooth socket again." A look at the figure above will make it 4 on 4 so far.
Prediction #5: The 3G iPhone carries the Hammerhead II GPS solution co-developed by Infineon and Global Locate, the company that was bought by Broadcom last year. So, that makes my prediction #5 - "The next generation will have GPS and it will likely belong to Broadcom" - right too. I don't know the specifics of the licensing agreement between Global locate and Infineon. So, I will not be able to comment on whether BRCM will benefit from this component, if at all.
Prediction #6: The touchscreen controller belongs to Broadcom as well.
In summary, all six iPhone predictions I have recorded in this blog have come out to be true. As you can see, I based my prediction on most of these components on the rationale that Apple will not want to hamper the stability of the 3G iPhone by testing out new components in a short time span. As it turns out, most of Apple's component decisions were based on this very logic and is aptly pointed out by the TechOnline article.
[PS: For a more thorough look into the component dissection, please visit TechOnline's site]
[Disclosure: Long IDCC at the time of writing]
Disclaimer: All thoughts expressed by Vijay Nagarajan in his articles are his and do not necessarily reflect those of either Atheros Communications or TensorComm Inc.
3G iPhone predictions recap
Thursday, June 5, 2008
We are less than a week off from the Apple Worldwide Developer's Conference 2008 (WWDC) in which the 3G iPhone is expected to make its debut. I have, over the past year, covered the 3G iPhone in great detail. As we head to the WWDC, I thought it will be nice to compile my iPhone predictions about some component suppliers. Take them for what they are - just predictions!
3G Baseband: Infineon will be at the heart of the iPhone. The Infineon 3G chip will have a software stack that is jointly developed with InterDigital. The King of Prussia-based InterDigital is also likely to have a good portion of the baseband IP if my guess is right. I am basing this last speculation on the performance of the IFX chipsets in recently conducted tests.Essentially, InterDigital will earn a per-chip royalty for the software stack and possibly for the baseband IP. For more details on the 3G baseband supplier analysis, I will direct you to my article here.
Application Processor: Samsung will perhaps continue to own this part. Marvell has an outside chance.
WLAN: For platform stability issues, I will bet on Marvell grabbing this socket again. Broadcom may spring a surprise with its WLAN-BT-FM integrated solution.
Bluetooth: If WLAN belongs to Marvell, CSR, which is in the current iPhone, will likely own the Bluetooth socket again.
GPS: The next generation will have GPS and it will likely belong to Broadcom. This was recently ratified by a GigaOm report.
Touchscreen: Broadcom
I cannot hypothesise on other components. But if I were to guess, I will bet on Apple retaining most existing suppliers. While I have been talking about these component suppliers for around a year now, some of these predictions may appear matter-of-fact to readers today. In any case, now that I have put it all in a list, let us see what my hit-rate is!
[Long IDCC at the time of writing] Read the full article>>
SiRF may merge or get acquired
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Michael Canning resigned last week as the CEO of SiRF, the leading GPS silicon provider. Besides the events leading up to it, the announcement itself reaffirms my belief that SiRF’s end-game, whether it likes it or not, is to merge or get acquired.
As early as last summer, when SiRF’s shares were soaring, I questioned its strategy of focusing on stand-alone GPS solutions unmindful of the bigger trends towards integration and convergent connectivity solutions in the mobile world. Mobile companies like Broadcom and NXP (which recently got acquired by STM) acquired smaller GPS companies. SiRF, on its part, did not attempt to pair up with WLAN or Bluetooth solution providers but instead focused on a DVB-H product for mobile broadcasting. Contrast this with Atheros, a WLAN provider with comparable market cap last year, which has expanded its portfolio to have Bluetooth, GPS and Ethernet over the past couple of years and you will notice a flaw in SiRF’s thinking so far. You can read my thoughts on the Broadcom’s Global Locate acquisition here and Atheros’ GPS moves here.
Despite the booming GPS market and its acquisition of Centrality last year, SiRF may have just let the mobile market slip away from its hands. Broadcom especially seems to be doing a stellar job in stealing customers away from SiRF. The loss in market share led to bad quarters and the company’s share price has since tumbled to its nadir. While I think that this price drop is a little harsh, it does surprise me that most people did not see this coming. More insights and explanations about the SiRF strategy can be found here and here.
Now, with Qualcomm, Broadcom, STM-NXP and TI having GPS capabilities, SiRF has limited room to maneuver in the mobile space. Additionally, companies like Atheros and CSR are broadening their portfolios to fill in the gaps. Faced with the increased possibility of being marginalized, it looks like SiRF will have to align itself with the others who have a realistic chance in the mobile space or with a microprocessor/computer chipset company to sell with laptops.
[Long SiRF at the time of writing]
Read the full article>>Broadcom - Bluetooth today and tomorrow
Sunday, February 24, 2008
I have, so far in this series, looked at Broadcom’s Enterprise Networking business and also its Broadband Communications business. In the next few articles, I will present a discussion of the various components of its mobile and wireless business unit before proceeding to its valuation. This piece focuses on Bluetooth.
Broadcom is a leading Bluetooth semiconductor vendor with 25-30% market share. The company’s solutions are used in mobile phones, PCs, notebooks, gaming devices and headsets among other gadgets. I also estimate that about $500 million of Broadcom’s 2007 revenues came from its Bluetooth solutions primarily driven by the cellular market. The company has also been the ‘first-to-market’ here with products such as its integrated FM plus Bluetooth solution. Besides, it has been helped by new-found traction with the headset OEMs.
Bluetooth, with its rapid adoption as the low-power wireless standard, presents a good opportunity for Broadcom. I estimate that the total addressable market (TAM) of Bluetooth will grow at a CAGR of 10% from about $1.7 billion for 2007 to $2.7 billion in 2012. This corresponds to around 2 billion Bluetooth chips sold in 2012. This growth will benefit from the 50% growth in Bluetooth penetration in mobile phones. About 75-85% of future phones are expected to be Bluetooth-enabled. Also, hands-free driving legislations will provide a boost to the sale of headsets and embedded Bluetooth-units for cars. Gaming devices (Nintendo Wii, Playstation, X-Box, etc.) and portable media devices (iPod, Zune) which are looking to embrace Bluetooth will also be key drivers accounting for almost 20% of the Bluetooth semiconductors in 2012. Finally, these devices also provide good opportunities for high-quality Bluetooth stereo headsets.
Broadcom’s position in this lucrative market has to be seen in the context of some future trends.
Firstly, there is a trend towards consolidated devices and chips. Broadcom is looking to expand its leadership here through its triple play product with a 65 nm FM, WLAN and Bluetooth chip.
Another key development in recent times is the announcement of the BT3 AMP (Alternate MAC/PHY for next-generation Bluetooth). This allows Bluetooth to piggyback on the high-data rate capabilities of WLAN. This will allow Broadcom, one of the WLAN leaders, to consolidate its hold in the Bluetooth space potentially taking market share away from CSR, the current leaders.
The market, however, is extremely competitive. Companies such as Marvell and Qualcomm have plans for integrated products as well. Atheros has also made recent strides in this space. Along with Marvell, Atheros is perhaps better positioned to exploit BT3 AMP. Both of them have lower power WLAN solutions that are more suited for all mobile and gaming devices. So, though 65 nm looks a jazzy proposition along with the integrated solutions, Broadcom will have to work on low-power WLAN chips to effectively tackle the growing competition. Besides, a substantial portion of its mobile Bluetooth sales will also be dependent on its own success as a cellular mobile chipset vendor. This component adds to the risks associated with this business.
In summary, it appears that while this business is a shining star today for Broadcom, it comes with inherent risks and a more aggressive competitive landscape. If Broadcom works on the ‘right’ innovations (not necessarily the ‘eye-catching’ ones), then it will continue to maintain its market share while the competition will encroach into CSR’s market share, especially if BT3 AMP takes off. This, in my mind, is a reasonable assumption despite the fluidity of the company’s mobile chipset business.
Disclaimer: These are my perspectives on Broadcom and does not necessarily reflect the views of Atheros Communications or Tensorcomm.
Read the full article>>
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