Showing posts with label Interdigital. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Interdigital. Show all posts

Inside the 3G iPhone - revisiting my predictions

Sunday, July 13, 2008

TechOnline published a very detailed teardown analysis of the 3G iPhone that can be accessed here. Their analysis went a step beyond iFixit's disassembly as they scrutinized 'under the hood' of the various iPhone components to identify them more accurately. Their extraordinary effort also lets me review my iPhone predictions that were summarized in my June 2008 post here.

Here is the photo of the iPhone 3G chipset as dissected by TechOnline -


Prediction #1: As this photo indicates, Infineon emerged the cellular chipset winner. The analysts are not sure if it is the PMB 8878 since they had no way of comparing the iPhone component with a known sample of the Infineon 3G baseband offering. They found that the baseband was a two-chip, single package solution. They further identified it as the 2G chip and a 3G accelerator.

For the moment, I have no reason to suspect that this is anything butthe PMB 8878. I don't believe that Infineon would have a chip customized for Apple. On the other hand, the company perhaps quickly cobbled together a 3G solution in the form of a two-chip PMB8878 to cater to the market needs (including those of Apple.) Given the long cellular product cycle and the tight iPhone schedules, this would have been the path of least risk as compared to spinning single chip solutions. For the record, Infineon recently announced smaller and more sophisticated 3G solutions with its own software stack. These latest chips (that are not in the iPhone) are likely the more thought out, and more optimal single chip UMTS solution.

The two-chip solution inside the iPhone 3G further brings back the question I have been asking for a while now. Does the 3G IP in Infineon partially or wholly belong to InterDigital? It could well be that the iPhone has many if not all elements of the SlimChip IP from InterDigital. Apple's license with InterDigital last year will then have deeper implications than the normal 3G license that the King of Prussia-based company seeks from handset vendors.

While the exact details will emerge in the coming days, my prediction #1, "Infineon will be at the heart of the iPhone. " has turned out to be true.

Prediction #2: "Samsung will perhaps continue to own this part. " Not much surprise here as the iFixit teardown revealed last Thursday. Prediction #2 was true too.

Prediction #3: Before we discuss WLAN and Bluetooth, here is a second picture from TechOnline -

So, as it turns out, Apple yet again went with Marvell for WLAN. Prediction #3, "For platform stability issues, I will bet on Marvell grabbing this socket again." was right.

Prediction #4: "If WLAN belongs to Marvell, CSR, which is in the current iPhone, will likely own the Bluetooth socket again." A look at the figure above will make it 4 on 4 so far.

Prediction #5: The 3G iPhone carries the Hammerhead II GPS solution co-developed by Infineon and Global Locate, the company that was bought by Broadcom last year. So, that makes my prediction #5 - "The next generation will have GPS and it will likely belong to Broadcom" - right too. I don't know the specifics of the licensing agreement between Global locate and Infineon. So, I will not be able to comment on whether BRCM will benefit from this component, if at all.

Prediction #6: The touchscreen controller belongs to Broadcom as well.

In summary, all six iPhone predictions I have recorded in this blog have come out to be true. As you can see, I based my prediction on most of these components on the rationale that Apple will not want to hamper the stability of the 3G iPhone by testing out new components in a short time span. As it turns out, most of Apple's component decisions were based on this very logic and is aptly pointed out by the TechOnline article.

[PS: For a more thorough look into the component dissection, please visit TechOnline's site]

[Disclosure: Long IDCC at the time of writing]

Disclaimer: All thoughts expressed by Vijay Nagarajan in his articles are his and do not necessarily reflect those of either Atheros Communications or TensorComm Inc.

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Infineon cellular chipset in iPhone 3G

Thursday, July 10, 2008

iFixit has dissected the iPhone 3G here. It is a well done and well documented dissection that comes a full day early for iPhone geeks in the US. I do not wish to steal the thunder from the ifixit folks. So, while I will let you look up the rest from the iFixit site, I will touch upon one component that is very close to my heart.

I am hopefully not jumping the gun but here is what I read from the photos that iFixit has posted-

While the folks who did the dissection have so far identified the Infineon Smart3i chip, I think the photo of the chipset also indicates the Infineon 608 baseband. The chip with the part number 337s3394 is very likely the PMB8878, or XGOLD 608. This is further corroborated by the 608xx labeling on that chip and also a similar part from the last iPhone that was identified as the S-GOLD2 baseband processor.

This perhaps confirms something that I have been predicting for around a year now. Infineon's chipset is in the 3G iPhone and by extension, InterDigital's 3G protocol stack is also in!

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 7:58 AM 4 comments  

InterDigital - Thoughts on the ITC staff report

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

The staff attorney assigned to the InterDigital-Samsung ITC dispute favored Samsung in his report. His position that there is no violation calls for rejecting InterDigital's proposal to ban disputed Samsung products in the US. InterDigital's stock took a 25% dip as the Street is now pessimistic about its prospects. As the drama unfolds, here is an attempt to even out public perception. Before you read on, however, please note that I am neither a legal expert nor a Wall Street analyst. So, take it for what it is, just an opinion.


Firstly, while the staff report is an unbiased third-party opinion on the case, it is still only one instrument for the Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) to decide. The judge is yet to hear both companies' positions. The staff report is not binding on the judge. There is precedence in the past where the ALJ has acted against the staff recommendation. So, while InterDigital has lost some positioning in this case now, the staff recommendation is certainly not the end of the road for this ITC dispute.

Secondly, contrary to what I alluded to in my last post, an unfavorable decision by the ALJ will only reject the call to ban Samsung phones in the US. Besides, one theory is that a 'no violation' decision may be the result of the staff attorney finding that this is a licensing dispute that has to be amicably resolved between the parties without warranting a ban.

Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, InterDigital has many more things going for it beyond the ITC dispute. Most notably, the company has already licensed to Apple and RIMM, both of whom are battling it out in the smartphone market. It is also very likely to be a beneficiary of the 3G iPhone to be released shortly. Ironically enough, Samsung sources 3G chipsets for some of its designs from Infineon. These phones will hence use InterDigital's 3G protocol stack and, like the 3G iPhone, contribute per-unit royalties to the King of Prussia-based company. You can find more about InterDigital's products and strategies here and here.

Finally, for the curious minds who are wondering what will happen to InterDigital's valuation if the Samsung case goes against it, I will direct you to my February 2008 valuation post here. A nominal assumption on the total royalty money gave me a $75/share valuation then. You can look at the revenue impact of the royalty rate replete with graphs there.

In summary, I feel that the sell position taken by many investors is understandable. InterDigital is a volatile story stock and the ITC staff report did little to buttress investor confidence. On the other hand, a 25% drop seems unwarranted in the light of a) lack of enough information given that the case is still in its preliminary stages and b) many other developments to look forward to from InterDigital.

[PS: Thanks to all the readers who responded to my previous post]

[Disclosure: Long IDCC at the time of writing]

Disclaimer: All thoughts expressed by Vijay Nagarajan in his articles are his and do not necessarily reflect those of either Atheros Communications or TensorComm Inc.

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 3:30 PM 1 comments  

InterDigital - Samsung ITC case

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

If there is an award for bad blog-post timing, then I will perhaps be a front-runner this month! Just yesterday, I posted about Nokia and IDCC settling their UK disputes. I mentioned that it was a sign of more good news to come. Today, IDCC announced that the ITC staff in the Samsung case has favored Samsung. This has let to an astronomical 25% drop in IDCC's share price as people scampered to let go of their shares in anticipation of more bad news.

This is not a great development for IDCC. The downside is that if the ALJ upholds the staff's recommendation, then IDCC will lose any right to collect royalty from Samsung in the US. This will also likely percolate to its ITC case against Nokia creating a domino effect. This being said, the dispute still has a long way to go. Both parties are yet to make their respective cases.

For the moment, I am looking for more clarity in this matter. I would appreciate it if readers can provide any information that can be disseminated to educate others here. Please send me emails through the contact form. I would especially appreciate insights on the actual proceedings, court reports etc. that can go beyond what is being commonly reported.

More updates to follow as I come to know more!

[Long IDCC at the time of writing]

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 10:28 AM 0 comments  

InterDigital - More good news on its way?

Monday, July 7, 2008

InterDigital, the King of Prussia-based wireless company, saw its shares jump by about 5% last week when the S&P and Nasdaq were down by around 2%. The reason for this optimism was the news that InterDigital and Nokia have agreed to end two legal proceedings in the UK.

In July 2005, Nokia asked a London High Court declare InterDigital's intellectual property as non-essential to UMTS (3G standard encompassing WCDMA and HSDPA). InterDigital, in turn, filed a suit against Nokia in December 2006. The companies recently decided to drop these lawsuits. The terms of the agreement are unknown. Besides, the companies continue to be at loggerheads in front of the ITC in the US. While this settlement does not reflect a sudden friendliness or alliance between the two warring companies, it is certainly a good sign for both parties.

For Nokia, it means lesser distractions from its focus of retaining and growing its mobile market share and its fight to match new niche players like Apple. For InterDigital, ending the UK disputes quickly was becoming important. Its legal disputes with tier-one handset vendors were dragging their feet pulling down the company's intrinsic value with them.

I see the amicable end to the UK disputes also as a sign of more good news to come. For both companies, this is a good data point for their ITC-related licensing negotiations. If the companies can agree on the ITC litigation as well (which I presume will revolve around the exact 'per-unit royalty' that InterDigital will then collect from Nokia's 3G phones), the wireless IP-house will widen its 3G footprint. It will also carry this momentum forward into the ITC litigation/negotiation discussions with Samsung for more favorable results.

Like I have said before, I don't doubt that IDCC has important 3G IP. It is more a question of when and how much the industry is willing to pay for it. Maybe we will know many of these answers over the next few months. Earlier coverage on InterDigital can be found here, here and here.

For me, like for many other InterDigital investors, this week will answer some other questions to bring more good news. This Friday, I will watch out for the many 3G iPhone teardowns that will follow its world-wide release. If my analysis is right, we will see InterDigital's 3G protocol stack inside the new iPhone. IDCC is guaranteed per-unit royalty from Infineon for each of its 3G chipset sold. I will let you guesstimate what it means to InterDigital's revenue for the next few quarters!

[Long IDCC at the time of writing]

[Disclaimer: All thoughts expressed by Vijay Nagarajan in his articles are his and do not necessarily reflect those of either Atheros Communications or TensorComm Inc.]


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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 9:00 PM 0 comments  

How to look for IDCC in 3G iPhone?

Sunday, June 8, 2008

The 3G iPhone is expected to launch soon at the WWDC. One of the primary component winners likely is Infineon. The company’s cellular chipset is expected to drive the iPhone. As we wait for the teardown, I was asked by a good friend how we would know if IDCC is in the iPhone. He specifically wanted me to address the issue with respect to the latest IFX 3G product announcements. Here is my take on it.

Firstly, IDCC will get licensing fees from Apple as per agreements signed last year. The agreement covers 2G and 3G iPhones to be sold in the near future. So, irrespective of whose 3G components are in the iPhone, IDCC gets money from Apple.

Secondly, there will be money coming if Infineon’s 3G baseband is in the iPhone. In light of the recent product announcements by Infineon, I need to be careful when I make that statement. So, let me step back and reflect on the impending 3G iPhone. I wrote in the past that I expect to see the MP-EH platform with the S-GOLD3H baseband chip in the 3G iPhone. The company has rechristened its products since. The HSDPA capable MP-EH platform is now the XMM 6080 while its 3G baseband chip - PMB8878 - previously known as the S-GOLD-3H (H indicating HSDPA capability) is now the X-GOLD 608. Read more on this subject here and here.

Further, the 3G software stack that will be used in the MP-EH/S-GOLD3H combination was jointly developed by InterDigital and Infineon’s subsidiary Comneon. So, IDCC will get per-unit royalty from Infineon for use of the stack. While the software collaboration is public, I am inclined to speculate based on recent modem performance data that IFX 3G chips use some baseband receiver design IP from IDCC. This can be an additional source of per-unit royalty for IDCC.

Recently, Infineon announced an array of X-GOLD61x HSDPA/HSUPA products that drastically reduce on power and space apart from catering to multiple phone market segments. Furthermore, the company also announced specifically that the stack for the X-GOLD61x solutions is internally developed. While this announcement gives more design control to Infineon, it implies that IDCC will not receive per-unit royalties for the software stack on the 61x series. On the other hand, I am still bullish (read speculation) about the use of IDCC’s physical layer receiver IP in all of Infineon’s 3G offerings. Also, while I think these new products are part of Infineon's push to hold on to Apple for future designs in the face of increasing competition, I would be greatly surprised if I see any of these 61x chips in the first 3G iPhone.

In summary, look to see if the iPhone teardown reveals Infineon’s PMB8878/X-GOLD 608/S-GOLD-3H baseband. So, the best case scenario for IDCC is for the iPhone to have a heart of Gold! Even otherwise, the King of Prussia-based company will gain from Apple’s licensing fees.

[Long IDCC at the time of writing]

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 11:44 PM 0 comments  

3G iPhone predictions recap

Thursday, June 5, 2008

We are less than a week off from the Apple Worldwide Developer's Conference 2008 (WWDC) in which the 3G iPhone is expected to make its debut. I have, over the past year, covered the 3G iPhone in great detail. As we head to the WWDC, I thought it will be nice to compile my iPhone predictions about some component suppliers. Take them for what they are - just predictions!

3G Baseband: Infineon will be at the heart of the iPhone. The Infineon 3G chip will have a software stack that is jointly developed with InterDigital. The King of Prussia-based InterDigital is also likely to have a good portion of the baseband IP if my guess is right. I am basing this last speculation on the performance of the IFX chipsets in recently conducted tests.Essentially, InterDigital will earn a per-chip royalty for the software stack and possibly for the baseband IP. For more details on the 3G baseband supplier analysis, I will direct you to my article here.

Application Processor: Samsung will perhaps continue to own this part. Marvell has an outside chance.

WLAN: For platform stability issues, I will bet on Marvell grabbing this socket again. Broadcom may spring a surprise with its WLAN-BT-FM integrated solution.

Bluetooth: If WLAN belongs to Marvell, CSR, which is in the current iPhone, will likely own the Bluetooth socket again.

GPS: The next generation will have GPS and it will likely belong to Broadcom. This was recently ratified by a GigaOm report.

Touchscreen: Broadcom

I cannot hypothesise on other components. But if I were to guess, I will bet on Apple retaining most existing suppliers. While I have been talking about these component suppliers for around a year now, some of these predictions may appear matter-of-fact to readers today. In any case, now that I have put it all in a list, let us see what my hit-rate is!


[Long IDCC at the time of writing]

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 9:00 PM 0 comments  

Nokia to use IDCC products in future?

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

With Nokia and InterDigital (IDCC) engaged in a prolonged legal battle over licensing issues, the title of this article is sure to raise more than a few eyebrows. I think that recent industry events make this an interesting but overlooked possibility. Here is why –

The IDCC-NXP connection: NXP has licensed IDCC’s 3G HSDPA ASIC design for its PNX6712 chip. The companies entered into this agreement for integration into NXP’s Nexperia cellular chipsets as early as August 2005. Talking about this during InterDigital’s 1st quarter 2008 conference call, its CFO Scott McQuilkin said, “We also completed our delivery of HSDPA technology to NXP and ASIC is now moving into production.”

The NXP-STM connection: STM and NXP entered into a JV last month merging their wireless businesses to acquire scale. You can read my extensive coverage of this event here and here. The formation of a solid number three player stints IDCC’s abilities to sell its SlimChip solution directly. But in the bigger scheme of things, it spells good news for the King of Prussia-based company as the JV widens its footprint. In the most recent quarter conference call, IDCC’s CEO William Merritt resonated this point saying, “Frankly we looked at the combination of ST Micro and NXP and said, ‘Great, they’re getting stronger and they have our IP’ and we love our licensees to be strong and pushing hard into the market..”

The STM-Nokia connection: Nokia last year decided on a multi-vendor sourcing strategy. It now sources 3G from both TI and STM. Additionally, it also transferred about 200 chipset design engineers to STM. This not only signals Nokia’s move away from chipset design, but also presents STM with the opportunity to grab more 3G business at Nokia. It is devoting R&D resources to baseband design and NXP’s team and product are an active part of the equation.

The performance conundrum: Data communication necessitates a better receiver design. Despite the design resources from Nokia, STM will take time to build a competitive solution on its own. On the other hand, the design that NXP has licensed from IDCC is one of the top-performing receivers today. Nokia cannot afford to lag in 3G performance especially considering its high-end mobile market competitors have good solutions. Samsung sources from Qualcomm and Infineon while Apple is expected to have an Infineon chipset in its impending 3G iPhone. So, for the moment, the IDCC design seems to be the most accessible ‘best’ 3G solution for Nokia.

In summary, as STM continues its 3G ramp up, it may use NXP’s design in its platform in the short-term. IDCC, by virtue of its license agreement with NXP, will directly benefit from this move. What is more, this will give IDCC a chance to be part of Nokia phones. Now, that begs another question. Are IDCC and Nokia factoring this in their licensing discussions?

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Samsung multi-sources 3G now

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Samsung announced recently that it was sourcing 3G chipsets from Infineon as well. This is yet another indication of the larger trend amongst handset makers to source from multiple chipset-vendors. While this is a jolt to Qualcomm's 3G market share expansion plans, it is great news for Infineon and its 3G ally, InterDigital.

The move away from Qualcomm is significant on at least three counts. Firstly, it suggests that as much as performance is important for data networks, the competition has succeeded in narrowing Qualcomm's lead there. Secondly, the lower cost of Infineon's solution speaks well of the company's IP position. Thirdly, it expands InterDigital's 3G product footprint.

It is bad news for Qualcomm. One of the key reasons for Samsung's move is that it found a viable performance alternative for a cheaper price. That underscores the issue for Qualcomm. Until now, the company was charging a premium for its superior performance and its support network. However, as a recent Signals Research Group report points out, there are at least three other solutions with comparable performance in the market today, Infineon being one of them. These alternatives become attractive if the handset vendors discount Qualcomm's reliability and support.

It is good news for Infineon. The company is expected to be central to the 3G iPhone. With design wins at Samsung, the German semiconductor company will grow its 3G market share at the expense of Qualcomm. With the lower overhead coming from its comfortable IP position, Infineon can afford to undercut Qualcomm's pricing to gain further traction.

It is better news for InterDigital. The company supplies the 3G software stack for Infineon's solutions and stands to make money off every 3G Infineon chipset sold. So, while the King of Prussia-based company is involved in a prolonged legal battle with Samsung on IP issues, this will open up another channel of revenue from the Korean handset maker.

InterDigital's SlimChip, though one of the best, has not got substantial direct traction in the market. On the other hand, the company, through its alliance with Infineon and its product IP core licensing initiatives, is looking to expand its footprint at a fast rate. Apart from the Samsung design win, I am particularly curious how 3G will play out between STM and Nokia. (Stay tuned for an analysis of how InterDigital may benefit from the STM-Nokia relationship in the wake of recent industry events.)

In summary, Samsung has reiterated the move towards multi-sourcing. Like some of the other wireless segments, pricing and time-to-market will likely drive mobile baseband as well. That is if Qualcomm's competitors can stand up to its deep pockets and deliver consistently.

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 9:00 PM 2 comments  

Icera another option for TI

Sunday, May 18, 2008

In my Texas Instruments (TXN) valuation series, I pointed out that the company did not have a strong 3G product strategy. I subsequently also discussed in detail the synergies that existed between InterDigital and TI. I had also noted that if not InterDigital, TI could consider Icera also as a viable option to buttress its 3G roadmap. Let us take a quick look at this possibility.

Bristol-based Icera Semiconductors has one of the better performing HSDPA products in the market today. The company’s soft modems have been gaining traction in the data-cards market. The company recently announced a merger with Sirific Wireless. Sirific’s RF front-end and digital RF expertise is expected to complement Icera’s Livanto soft modems. Icera also announced a mobile phone design win recently. Combined with Sirific, Icera has raised over $200mn till date. The company is also looking to raise another round on the strength of its recently announced design wins and the broader market traction it has been receiving of late. More on Icera can be found here.

Texas Instruments, as I have been lamenting once too often in this blog, does not have its own 3G-baseband roadmap. The ‘foundry’ model worked for the company so far. But with Nokia and Ericsson sourcing from multiple vendors, its situation has become precarious. Besides, Nokia also moved its chipset engineering team to STM which after its recent merger with NXP has become a larger force to reckon with. These industry-events together with Broadcom's (BRCM) aggressive ‘3G on a chip’ campaign spell bad news for TI.

TI has to act soon. Pacts with InterDigital (IDCC) and/or Icera to bundle their baseband solutions with its application processors or even to offer a combined OMAPVox solution are possible. Or, if TI desires, it can attempt to acquire one of these companies. IDCC, with its strong IP is unlikely to be a cheap acquisition target. Besides, there is a chance that IDCC’s patents may only incrementally benefit TI in patent cross-licensing discussions given the latter's already strong IP position.

A good alternative then is to acquire a focused product-centric company such as Icera. With the scale of investments, Icera may be a cheaper option to pursue than IDCC. The company’s expertise in soft modems may complement TI’s own DSP expertise to create niche products for the future. With its support network, TI can leverage this unique technology to stay ahead of its competitors in product launch as well as performance.

Of course, the other question to ask is if either TI or Icera will consider its path. For TI, the RF expertise in Icera may not add much value. So, the UK-based company may have sounded more attractive to TI before the Sirific merger (though an additional $100mn is not much for the semiconductor giant.) Icera, on the other hand, is also positioning for an IPO in the 2010 timeframe and Sirific is seen as a strategic addition in this direction.

While Icera seems to have big plans, TI may also just resign to its dwindling 3G baseband business. With the convergence devices movement slowly heating up, the company also finds itself competing with more players on the applications processor front. So, if it does not buy or partner with someone now, it will have to think ahead, start on 4G and hope that it can recapture any lost market share at that time.

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 9:48 PM 3 comments  

InterDigital exceeds expectations, expresses iPhone hopes

Thursday, May 8, 2008

InterDigital announced its First Quarter 2008 results yesterday. The King of Prussia-based company beat analyst expectations this quarter, addressed the Nokia and Samsung litigations and also hinted about its 3G iPhone presence.

The total revenues for the First Quarter 2008 were $56mn down from $67.8mn in First Quarter 2007. Last year’s number however includes $18mn royalty audit findings and 2G royalties from Sony Ericsson. This year’s revenues include $55.5mn in recurring revenues, $53.3mn of which comes from patent licensing royalties. The net income was $7.3 million, or $0.15 per diluted share. This is almost double of the analyst consensus of $0.08 per diluted share.

InterDigital’s operational expenses for the quarter were at $45.1. The company has a healthy cash position of about $240mn and continues its share re-purchase program. LG, Sharp and NEC together account for 54% of the recurring revenues while RIMM, HTC, Sierra wireless and Option also have solid licensing deals with the company. While it did not give the revenue outlook for the next quarter yet, InterDigital forecasted that the non-litigation operating expenses (associated with SlimChip R&D and marketing) would grow sequentially between 4-8%.

On the product front, the company executives are positive about the technology IP licensing agreement with the ‘growing Asian semiconductor company’ that it hopes will increase its footprint in the Asian markets. The company’s HSDPA technology to NXP is moving into production and would now expand its presence given NXP’s merger with STM. Even while it continues IOT and performance testing with its current product, InterDigital asserted that its next product scheduled for 2009 was also well into development. This cost-down, better performing product targets not only the data-card and embedded market but also the smart-phone and the high-end feature-phone market.

On the licensing front, InterDigital continues to battle Nokia and Samsung. It has moved to sever the two cases with the ITC. It reiterated that it has made ‘substantial progress’ with the Nokia licensing negotiations. The executives suggested that the Finnish-handset maker’s current offer was unacceptable even if it were ‘a bird in the hand.’ Optimistic about a positive resolution, they stressed that InterDigital now has the scale to assert its IP using its financial position to create more value. With a growing list of over 25 3G licensees and with 3G itself burgeoning, the company is looking to leverage its IP optimally.

I also looked to pick up clues on the impending 3G iPhone during the call. CEO William Merritt was bullish in his prepared remarks mentioning “based on public report, [Infineon’s] good positioning for the iPhone 3G business.” This, as Bill points out, is attractive for InterDigital due to its per unit 3G software licensing deal with Infineon. The company was also hopeful that Infineon would win the 3G iPhone socket since it will be “a nice contributor to revenue.” My take –the CEO will not mention the iPhone in his prepared remark unless he is confident about Infineon. It appeared to me he was playing safe and yet wanted to give the InterDigital investors a clue of what was in the offing. I see this as yet another ratification of my 3G iPhone-Infineon-InterDigital thesis which you can read here.

The company’s product marketing strategy also struck the right chord with me. It mentioned that it was in talks with application processor companies. The plan is to bundle its SlimChip solution with powerful application processors for the smart-phone market. This is something that I have been advocating that InterDigital has to do. As I have mentioned here, there is a great synergy with TI. It will serve the best interests of both these companies to partner for 3G. This TI+InterDigital bundle (or even a custom-OMAPVox solution) can find itself in Nokia smart-phones.

All in all, it was a good quarter. There were no red flags. On the contrary, I see the company positioning itself to realize maximal value out of its 3G IP and product offerings.

[Long InterDigital at the time of writing. All thoughts expressed here are those of the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of either Atheros Communications or TensorComm Inc.]

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 12:30 AM 0 comments  

3G iPhone and Qualcomm

Sunday, May 4, 2008

[Originally for Sramana Mitra's site]

The 3G iPhone rumors are getting more frequent by the day. We all know it will hit the market. It is just a question of when. I have, in the past, looked at the likely component vendors for the impending iPhone including Infineon and InterDigital. As requested by one of our readers, we take a look at a company which will gain from the 3G iPhone, even without a single component inside it - Qualcomm.


With a substantial portion of the 3G intellectual property (IP), Qualcomm stands to make royalty money from every CDMA-based phone sold around the world. Three out of four phones in the 2010-2011 timeframe are expected to be CDMA-based. Quite obviously, this includes the impending 3G iPhone.

If a 3G iPhone is available in the next couple of months, I estimate about 2.5 million units will be sold. This number is expected to climb to about 17.5 million units in 2010. With a conservative selling price of $350 and a royalty percentage of 5%, Qualcomm stands to make close to $44 million this year and as high as $300 million in 2010 just on iPhone sales.

Both Apple and Infineon (whose chipset, I am betting, is central to the 3G) will certainly be aware of this situation. Infineon purchased Agere’s mobility products business from LSI last year. This acquisition, as Will Strauss of Forward Concepts points out, brings with it a huge body of patents (including 3G) from Agere’s Bell labs legacy. Besides, Infineon has a strong ally in InterDigital, the IP powerhouse which supplies the 3G stack for Infineon chipsets. Apple also signed licensing agreements with InterDigital last year for 2G and 3G iPhones.

While it appears that the iPhone camp has a good IP position, it does not obviate the need for a Qualcomm license. The combined patent portfolio of Infineon and InterDigital will help bring down the net money flowing into Qualcomm’s coffers. However, it is unlikely that this number will become public knowledge. We will also not know what percentage distribution of this fee as paid by Apple or Infineon.

This brings us to an interesting question that our reader asks – “Is there an upcoming legal battle coming? Interesting since recently qcom and apple switched top lawyers.” It is true that Apple lost its general counsel Donald Rosenberg to Qualcomm last September. But I will desist from drawing connections to a potential legal battle. A legal bickering between the two technology heavyweights just because it is a lose-lose situation. Qualcomm, while vigorously defending its IP, would prefer to be in the good books of Apple hoping for a future design win into the iPhone or other convergence devices. With Nokia’s 40% market share seemingly out of its reach in the short-term, Qualcomm will attempt to grow its market share with new vendors, Apple being a prime candidate. I am sure that Apple, a stickler for performance and technology leadership, will also understand that Qualcomm can be an important partner in the longer term. So, the most likely scenario is a low profile licensing agreement between the two.

In summary, Qualcomm stands to gain from the 3G iPhone irrespective of whose chipset is being used. I highly doubt a legal showdown, least of all based on the general counsel’s move. As for the exact licensing terms, we will never know. This secrecy not only adds to the enigma of Apple’s product strategy and margins but is also crucial to the success of Qualcomm’s business model.

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 6:00 PM 4 comments  

3G iPhone's WiMAX rumors

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Craig Mathias wrote a piece last week on 802.21, a convergence standard promoted by the likes of InterDigital and Intel. Folks at 9to5 Mac immediately saw the iPhone connection and hatched what I thought was a highly speculative story. That Apple will push this yet official standard to include WiMAX into its impending 3G iPhone, based on convenient interpretation of a series of events, is the work of a very creative mind.

For the uninitiated, 802.21 is one of the various standards being promoted for convergence. So, if the infrastructure is in place, devices using this standard will perform ‘vertical’ handovers across the standards such as WiFi, WiMAX and 3G.

Before I move on to argue why I don’t see signs of a WiMAX-enabled iPhone yet, I should mention that as a fan of the convergence movement, I would love for one of the convergence standards to succeed. The idea of an iPhone enabling this seamless mobility does sound very appealing to me. Just that I don’t see the impending 3G iPhone implementing it to include WiMAX.

Let me dissect the evidence that the 9 to 5 Mac article presents to defuse the speculation –

“In March, that company revealed it has signed-up Apple (and RIM) as a licensee for its 3G technologies….. This news generated sparks of speculation that InterDigital’s SlimChip architecture might be deployed in products from Apple.”

The license agreement between Apple and IDCC is perhaps two-fold. Firstly, it is for the 3G intellectual property. Secondly, as I have written earlier, the iPhone will most likely have Infineon’s 3G chipset. Infineon, in turn, uses InterDigital’s 3G stack for which the latter gets a per-unit royalty. I think that Infineon’s solution has InterDigital’s contribution to the baseband design. But to think that the SlimChip will be central to the iPhone based on these signs is a stretch. In any case, 802.21 support or WiMAX is independent of SlimChip. You can read more about my iPhone 3G speculations here.

“..we know Apple has aggressive sales targets for this device, and that the company plans to introduce iPhones into more territories this year; we know that some of those target countries, Russia, for example, are moving to adopt WiMax;..”

This argument perhaps makes sense when the networks are more mature. In my opinion, a WiMAX-enabled iPhone this year will have limited value if you look at the bigger picture. Putting in a WiMAX solution not only hits its margins but also delays the product launch due to the additional logistics. That does not make economic sense to Apple and may in fact counter its aggressive sales target.

“Apple’s success in bringing new technologies to market was made most clear when it single-handedly popularised WiFi technology (AirPort) when it introduced the iBook in 1999….InterDigital’s move to join the WiFi Alliance this year, followed by its move to license its 3G modem technology to a shadowy (unnamed) Asian fabless semiconductor company also passed under the radar.”

Promoting a mobile standard is a much more complicated task. With WiFi, you are talking about interfacing with the consumer directly. With mobile-phones, the effort needs the confluence of the chipset vendor, handset vendor and the carrier. Also, InterDigital joined the WiFi alliance because of the technology’s role as a key component for 802.21. Neither this nor its modem technology licensing moves should relate to the iPhone.

While the idea of WiMAX+3G is great on paper, the logistics involve high-levels of risk that Apple will be unwilling to take. Platform stability and testing issues will limit Apple’s short-term options for iPhone. Hence, Infineon and most others who have already been designed into the current iPhone will retain their places. We will perhaps see GPS capabilities, but WiMAX, in my mind, is a non-starter for this version.

This does not however preclude a convergence standard/implementation like 802.21 from being included in the iPhone. I can see utility in having mobility between WiFi and 3G as a possible trend, and perhaps as the only real seamless mobility possibility for the 3G iPhone. But even this will be met with resistance from the carriers who will fear cannibalization of their revenue stream.

In summary, based on the current evidence and the inherent technical challenges, I will have to reject any suggestion of a WiMAX-enabled iPhone in 2008. I don’t see it, even with the InterDigital connection. To be fair to Andy Space who wrote the 9 to 5 Mac article, he has made it amply clear that this is pure speculation. While I did not find his central idea or his reasons as strong, I did enjoy reading the article for what it is – another out-of-whack and sensational iPhone rumor.

(Thanks to Dan Butterfield from iPhonAsia for pointing me to this article)

[Long InterDigital at the time of writing]

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 11:00 PM 0 comments  

Qualcomm's mobile-phone chipset strategy

Recently, I looked at Qualcomm’s 2008 fiscal second quarter earnings results. Subsequently, I also talked about the various mobile chipset opportunities that Qualcomm was positioned to exploit. Let us first look at how Qualcomm seeks to address some of these market areas.

Qualcomm’s 3G baseband chipset strategy is very comprehensive. The company is targeting low-end phones in emerging markets with cheap single-chip solutions. It expects QSC6010, which is driving CDMA growth in India, to be strong moving forward. Additionally, the company has invested heavily on its QSC6240 single-chip UMTS solution. With this low-cost product offering, the San Diego-based Qualcomm is hoping to drive the transition from GSM to WCDMA, especially in the high-volume markets.

Complementing these low-end 6000 series chips are the 7000 series of convergence platform chipsets. These chipsets combine the baseband functionality with an on-chip ARM-based processor to enable multiple smart-phones in mature markets. Additionally, the integration of the application processor allows Qualcomm to grab more of the handset ASP.

By addressing both the baseband and application processor markets, Qualcomm provides the most complete and powerful product portfolio among mobile silicon vendors. Besides, it is evident that Qualcomm is the only player to address all market segments – low, middle and high-end – efficiently.

Other players compete with Qualcomm in a subset of these segments but no one has either the technical acumen or the deep-pockets to make a difference across the board. They also have their deficiencies. Marvell, for example, focuses on low-cost, high volume chips but is currently behind in testing and development does not have a critical mass of design wins and also lacks a full-portfolio of connectivity solutions. InterDigital has set its sights only on the high-end smart-phone segment fully understanding that performance differentiation is the key to its success. TI lacks an in-house 3G roadmap that is detrimental to its dominating market share. If you are interested in understanding the competitive landscape in the chipset vendor space, I will direct you to my detailed valuation series on TI, InterDigital, Marvell and Broadcom available in my blog. I have also covered other vendors such as STM-NXP, Infineon and Icera to present a fairly complete picture of the chipset vendor space.

In summary, Qualcomm has the right ammunition to sustain and grow in the mobile phone and the data-card markets. Its business model has allowed it to develop a broad portfolio of solutions that dwarfs competition. As 3G grows, Qualcomm will grow with it, not just from this product mix but also the IP that forms the core of these technologies.

[Long Qualcomm at the time of writing]

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 1:00 AM 0 comments  

STM + NXP = Unhappy TI, Broadcom?

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

In my last article on the STM, NXP merger, I analyzed the JV from STM’s perspective. The merger is a clear sign of further consolidation in the 3G space. To understand this further, it is also illustrative to look at how other players in the vendor space can be impacted by this merger.

The importance of this merger primarily comes from my thesis that Texas Instruments has fumbled in its 3G strategy, leaving its huge market share wide open for other vendors to steal from it. Especially at risk is its huge Nokia account. The Finnish handset maker has already moved towards a multiple vendor strategy sourcing 3G chips from STM. Last year, it committed about 200 engineers to STM for the latter’s 3G chipset development program. Nokia is essentially focusing away from chipset IP and development. This has worked against TI and into the hands of STM and Broadcom (whose EDGE solutions are now being sourced by Nokia.) You can get further insights into TI’s wireless strategy and its potential pitfalls in my valuation series here, here and here.

The JV can further consolidate this relationship between Nokia and STM. Further, the complete portfolio of connectivity solutions will make it very attractive for the future smartphones from Nokia and the others. So, the JV will likely add to TI’s wireless woes. The impediment that I see is performance. The JV will still be behind Infineon, InterDigital, Icera and Qualcomm on performance. The hope is that a renewed R&D thrust will help narrow the gap in future designs.

Broadcom is perhaps another vendor for whom the merger can cause headaches. The Irvine-based company has in the past made its ambitions apparent – to work diligently towards the coveted third spot in the mobile vendor matrix. Broadcom has been very aggressive in its mobile campaign, not just with product announcements but also in its legal battles with Qualcomm to defend its IP position. The bottom-line is that it is also looking to grab market share from TI. If the JV can improvise on the connectivity solutions and build a stable and complete platform, it will give Broadcom a run for its money. But Broadcom will still have the time-to-market advantage for now. You can read more on Broadcom’s wireless outlook and my valuation analysis here, here and here.

Qualcomm is less likely to be threatened by the JV though the latter now has access to Samsung. Qualcomm’s technology leadership, its support network and its longer-term view of the mobile space places it on firmer ground. Infineon, which is likely to be at the heart of iPhone 3G, will now be a distant second in the European vendor matrix. InterDigital, Infineon’s 3G partner, will have to rely on performance as it tries to gain in the smart-phone market. Marvell and Icera among others will also come up with niche selling points to counter such consolidation.

So, while the price STM paid for the merger can be debated, there is no doubt in my mind that it is a consolidation that will send some vendors scampering. I have a lot of questions in my mind now. Will someone pick up Freescale as well? Will TI target an acquisition that will give it 3G baseband capabilities, perhaps InterDigital or Icera? Will InterDigital and Infineon further formalize their strong alliance to gain scale? Well, there is consolidation in the air. I can’t wait to see how the vendor matrix ends up a couple of years from now.

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Marvell - A product cycle company

Friday, April 11, 2008

[Originally for Sramana Mitra's site]

As part of our coverage of the mobile chip vendor space, we looked at Qualcomm, InterDigital, Broadcom and Texas Instruments in great detail. We now move on to another interesting and aggressive fabless semiconductor company – Marvell Technology group. Earlier coverage on Marvell can be found here.

Marvell provides application-specific standard products (ASSPs). The company has substantial expertise and intellectual property in the areas of DSP, embedded ARM-based microprocessor, analog and mixed-signal integrated circuit design. These strengths are responsible for Marvell’s phenomenal rise in the storage market. Today, the Santa Clara-based company (incidentally, Atheros’ back-door neighbors and competitors) leverages this expertise to develop high-performance System-on-Chip (SoC) solutions for various markets.

Marvell’s product portfolio includes solutions for data storage, Ethernet, cellular, wireless networking, personal area networking, video-image processing and power management solutions. Marvell serves a variety of markets including convergence of voice, data and video in consumer electronics goods. Marvell’s customers include storage companies such as Samsung, Toshiba and Western Digital, networking companies like Cisco, Juniper Networks and Foundry Networks, and cellular companies including Research in Motion (RIMM), Motorola, and Palm.

Marvell, in the words of its CEO Sehat Sutardja, is “inherently a product cycle company.” He continues to say that the company’s growth rate is directly related to new product adoption and transition. The strategy is to look at long-term investments that can grow on a top-line basis at 15-20% y-o-y. In the context of the current situation, this directly relates to Marvell’s thinking behind the acquisition of Intel’s applications and communications processor business.

We can divide the company’s products into three broad business areas namely storage, Ethernet and wireless. Besides these, other major products include solutions for VoIP, printing, digital video processing and power management. With this as a background, we should be able to take a deeper look at Marvell’s fortunes moving forward

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 11:00 AM 0 comments  

Infineon, InterDigital in iPhone 3G?

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

The web is abuzz with the news that the latest iPhone 2.0 beta software revealed whose chipset was at the heart of the impending 3G iPhone. The fairly innocuous and cryptic word ‘SGOLD3’ embedded in the code points to Infineon’s SGOLD-3H baseband processor. While this is news for many enthusiastically expecting the 3G iPhone, it is only a confirmation of what I have been saying since last fall – Infineon and InterDigital will be at the heart of the next iPhone.

The Infineon SGOLD-3H together with the MP-EH platform is a natural solution for Apple. Infineon’s SGOLD2 and the MP-EU platform form the basis of iPhone V1 and Apple has spent considerable time and energy optimizing it for performance, stability and power consumption. It makes sense to carry the good work forward with MP-EH which looks very identical to MP-EU rather than reset it with another new platform. You can read the rest of my prediction analysis from last fall here and here.

While Infineon’s SGOLD-3H appears to have been the default solution for the 3G iPhone, Apple definitely will not regret its choice. The Infineon solution is a Category 8 HSDPA solution, meaning that it supports incoming data rates (equals download speeds) of up to 7.2 Mbps. It has a fractionally spaced equalizer implementation of the receiver (which I think is predominantly InterDigital’s IP) that allows the realization of nominal data rates in mobile conditions. Not surprisingly, Infineon was one of the three companies picked as the 3G performance leaders by Signals Research. You can read more of my SGOLD3 musings here.

It is also important to acknowledge the other winners if the MP-EH and SGOLD-3H are in the next iPhone. First and perhaps the biggest will be InterDigital. Infineon’s 3G solutions use InterDigital’s stack. InterDigital is bound to get per-unit royalty and its deal with Apple last summer is a good pointer towards this direction. The King of Prussia company is Infineon’s behind-the-scene partner for 3G. My extensive coverage of the InterDigital connection can be found here and here.

Marvell, I think, will continue to supply the WiFi provided the interoperability issues it faced with its previous offerings are ironed out. With the Garmin Nuvifone round the corner, it is quite possible that iPhone will have GPS too. Broadcom is in a nice position to offer a bundle of its WiFi, Bluetooth and GPS offerings and may come out a big winner despite losing on the baseband front. As with the chipset itself, I expect Apple to retain most current component vendors who have met Apple’s serious performance expectations last time around. More on the iPhone 3G potential features can be found here.

I am glad that my iPhone 3G predictions are expected to be true. While the actual winners will not be determined until a tear-down, this is good intermediate information. Infineon is trading close at $7.37, close to its 52-week low of $6.26. InterDigital is trading around $20 today. If you have not read my InterDigital valuation series, this is perhaps a good time to do it from here. With the details of the iPhone 3G consolidating, now is perhaps a good time to pick this stock up even if you are looking at some quick short-term profits.

[Long InterDigital at the time of writing]

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My iPhone predictions coming true

For the benefit of my readers..

As Arun Demeure pointed out to me, it looks like my iPhone predictions about Infineon and hence InterDigital being in the 3G version slated for this summer are coming true. You can read the eetimes article here.

I mentioned this possibility back last summer and fall. I will post a detailed article later today. But until then, you can read my earlier coverage and predictions here, here, here and here.

You can also read my earlier iPhone 3G coverage here and here.

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 2:00 PM 0 comments  

Icera - big moves, big dreams

Monday, April 7, 2008

Bristol-based Icera Semiconductors announced today that it was acquiring Sirific Wireless for its complementary mobile RF capabilities. With this all-share merger for an undisclosed sum, Icera now hopes to offer a more complete 3G+ mobile chipset. (Read earlier coverage of Icera here and here.)

Sirific, founded in 2000, is a fabless semiconductor company developing CMOS RF transceivers for various mobile technologies including 3G and beyond. It boasts of expertise in digital RF, one of the more difficult design problems in mobile circuitry. It has raised around $60mn till date.

With a series C funding closed recently, Icera has now raised a little over $140mn in venture funding. So, the combined entity has over $200mn in venture money – an impressive amount demonstrating the VC confidence in this startup. Icera plans to raise a further $100mn later this year positioning itself for an IPO at the London stock exchange in 2 years.

Is it justified in dreaming big? Why go for Sirific?

Well, Icera has a niche product with its soft modems. Soft modems are highly customizable and upgradeable. The technology and the concepts involved, if rightly done, can be used for any wireless standard allowing for easier integration that is vital for tomorrow’s convergence devices. Icera’s thinking is that Sirific’s RF frontend and digital RF expertise will complement its revolutionary Livanto soft modem solution. This will not only allow Icera to come up with more complete, in-house platforms and reference designs but also offer a roadmap to highly integrated baseband + RF products in the future.

Icera is beginning to gain traction in the wireless data card market that it is currently targeting. It has signed a deal with Option, Europe’s laptop wireless data card leader and aims to capture 33% of the global data card market by the end of next year. But with the move towards in-built wireless broadband capabilities, products such as Qualcomm’s Gobi and the convergence devices phenomenon, data cards will become superfluous in the future. So to create a larger impact, the company has to make it big in the higher volume mobile phone space.

It has, however, not gotten nearly as much traction in the mobile space. What it needs is a strong alliance with a company like TI that offers application processors. Like I mentioned for InterDigital, such an alliance will allow it to piggyback on TI’s support network and economy of scale to win market share for its baseband (now baseband + RF) business. In turn, this will also help TI retain its 3G market share.Earlier coverage on this topic can be found here, here and here.

Icera has the technology to take it into the future. It needs to however sustain in the fiercely competitive mobile vendor space. The data card market will help on that front in the short term. Besides positively approaching the mobile phone market with the strategic acquisition of Sirific, Icera has certainly made a bold statement indicating that its IPO ambitions are real. The flotation valuation of such an IPO will be determined much by the design wins it secures in the mobile broadband space and perhaps on a few other strategic alliances.

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 11:00 PM 4 comments  

TI+InterDigital = 3G Consolidation?

Sunday, April 6, 2008

[Originally for Sramana Mitra's site]

In the previous article, I discussed what an acquisition of InterDigital can do to TI. What then will happen to the cellular industry and the 3G value chain?

If TI acquires InterDigital, I think there will be further market consolidation in the 3G space. Firstly, Nokia and Motorola will be happy that they can compete with ‘Qualcomm inside’ phones from Samsung and LG. Until Nokia and Qualcomm cool off on all their IP issues, it is unlikely that the Finnish company will get chips from Qualcomm. So, the entire Nokia business, which until now was TI’s monopoly, is now wide open. An InterDigital acquisition is one way for TI to retain this market. Also, Samsung and LG may also get a viable alternative to pursue a multiple vendor strategy.

If TI acquires InterDigital, its main competitors will feel added pressure moving forward. Qualcomm, the undisputed performance leader so far, is now being challenged by InterDigital, Infineon and Icera. The Qualcomm advantage still comes from its unsurpassed support network and the scale of operation. But TI can complement InterDigital to match Qualcomm on these two fronts as well, thereby erasing its competitive advantage.

If TI acquires InterDigital, Broadcom will take a bigger blow as its wireless strategy seemingly rests on capturing TI’s market share both in baseband and in the application processor market. Infineon, which currently has a strong alliance with InterDigital, and which I suspect has key elements of the latter’s 3G advanced receiver IP, will run the risk of being marginalized in 3G. Similar arguments can be made for Marvell, Freescale and ST Microelectronics among other chipset vendors.

If TI acquires InterDigital, it can potentially generate up to $10 billion of additional revenue over the next five years. The handset vendors like Nokia will be happy to see crucial 3G patents in the hands of ‘one of them.’ This will be an important factor securing TI design wins into the future. Assuming that a deal is closed at my $75 valuation of InterDigital, the sale price will be around $3.5bn. Under this condition, I will value TI between $36-$37.

Clearly, the two companies have distinct cultures and business model. But if these issues are dealt well, the combination can be explosive. What amazes me about InterDigital is the immense value it offers to companies with completely different business model. If it considers being acquired, it will be hot property. While I am not predicting an acquisition here, I think this is an option that TI should think about. Perhaps it is thinking about InterDigital, or even Icera, or has an accelerated in-house 3G/HSDPA program. Or it is just waiting out for the 4G promise, dodging the 3G curveballs thrown at it in the interim.

[Long InterDigital at the time of writing]

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Posted by Vijay Nagarajan at 10:00 AM 0 comments