Wireless Industry Analyst

In the first piece of the Interdigital (IDCC) series, I discussed Interdigital's past. The second piece talks about its latest moves and challenges. You can read the article by clicking this link.

With the Qualcomm series winding up, I have started a new series on Interdigital. The first article in this series written for Sramana Mitra's site is titled "Visionary beginning, Rocky past" and can be read here.

'Om Shanti Om' is the latest Bollywood blockbuster. It is a spoof in which the protogonist reincarnates and attains the glory he dreamt of in his previous birth. Sprint's Xohm is already dying a slow death and perhaps needs a reincarnation itself. Reason: Sprint called off its joint venture with Clearwire to roll out its much advertised mobile WiMax network.

In a month-old article titled "Forsee out: Will Sprint still Xohm or is UMB back?, I had stated reasons why Sprint may no longer see Xohm attractive post-Forsee. Sure enough, we are seeing its ramifications already. This retro-step is simply an indication of Sprint's commitment as a company to WiMax roll-out. It perhaps wants to so it can gain a leadership position for 4G. Unfortunately, at the current moment, there is no economic case that its investors see. Though it is still likely that Sprint will continue its roll-out efforts, this means that the pace of such a roll-out itself will be slow. There are a few comments I will make here -

While mobile WiMax itself may not be down and out in the US, Sprint's Xohm needs a reincarnation of sorts to live the dream.

I was rather pleasantly surpised to see Qualcomm acquire Firethorn Holdings, a mobile banking company. It coughed up $210 million to set its foot on rather unfamiliar territory. Though it is unclear how Qualcomm plans to use the acquisition, there are few things that pop up about this event -

So Qualcomm, what is next?

For the last couple of weeks, the Qualcomm share price has been quite volatile. It did not get reprieve from the market going down also. So what happened?

The share has thus been fairly volatile and will probably be this way until the legal battles are over. I did have a couple of comments though -

The only thing I did not comprehend was the rather reserved tone that the Qualcomm executives took this time around during the conference call.

Last week, the last of my series on Qualcomm (QCOM) was published on Sramana Mitra's site. You can access it here. I have concluded with my perception of the company's future. It will be interesting to see how and when the events unfold. For the unitiated, here is a list of my articles that you can read from Sramana Mitra's strategy blog.

• Legal Battles Galore: An overview of the company's battles with Nokia
• The Aftermath: The effects of such battles
• The Margins: A margin analysis indicating the adverse effects of continued reversals
• The 3G Goldmine: An analysis of the 3G explosion
• Digging Gold: An answer to how Qualcomm can dominate 3G
• The Nokia War: A peek into the company's history with Nokia
• The effect on Valuation: An event-driven valuation analysis showing how the share price can take a beating with negative events
• Chasing more Silicon: A quick look into how Qualcomm has positioned itself to expand its footprint as a semiconductor company
• More on Valuation: A composite event analysis concluding with my expected valuation of the Qualcomm share price considering all good and bad events possible
• The Epilogue: A view of the company's future strategy and outlook

I welcome comments on each of these and in general, the quality of the articles and how useful it was for you.

Part 9 is available here. This piece presents my final valuation of the San Diego company. As I have mentioned there, I would value the share at around $45. And this number has absorbed the legal risks that the company faces and also accounts for its potentially increasing 3G chipset market share and its increased footprint.

Part 8 of my QCOM series is available on Sramana Mitra's site. This briefly touches upon the company's short-term positives and bets. The next piece will incorporate these events in my final valuation of the company.

So, as I wind up this long-running QCOM series on Sramana Mitra's site, I have an event-based valuation of the company. You can read it here. This will be followed by sequels with positive events and corresponding valuations. Of course, I will also present my expected final valuation of the stock and conclude with its future outlook.